Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper

Home Sales Rose As Prices Stabilized–Housing Market is Turning a Corner

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose 2.8% on a month-over-month basis in June 2025, building on the 3.5% gain recorded in May. Over the past two months, the recovery in sales activity has been led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where transactions, although remaining historically low, have rebounded by a cumulative 17.3% since April. “At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May, with sales up about 3% on a month-over-month basis and prices once again holding steady,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “It’s another month of data suggesting the anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may have only been delayed by a few months, following a chaotic start to the year; although with the latest 35% tariff threat, we’re not out of the woods yet.” New Listings New supply declined by 2.9% month-over-month in June. With sales up and new listings down, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 50.1%, up from 47.3% in May. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. There were 206,435 properties listed for sale on Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of June 2025, up 11.4% year-over-year and just 1% below the long-term average for that time of the year. “Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall.” Home Prices The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.2%) from May to June 2025, following three straight month-over-month declines of closer to 1% in February, March, and April. The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.7% compared to June 2024. Based on the extent to which prices fell off in the second half of 2024, expect year-over-year declines to shrink in the months ahead. Bottom Line There is every indication that the housing markets in the GTA and the GVA are beginning to perk up following a disappointing Spring market. Sales generally increased in May and June, and new listings fell last month. The price data suggest a flattening in prices. Tariff uncertainty has swamped the psychology of many potential buyers, who are reticent to make a move. The latest 35% tariff threat from Washington doesn’t help. And while the central bank was expected to lower interest rates further, it took a pass at the prior two meetings and is likely to do so again on July 30th when it meets. This morning’s CPI release for June showed a continued rise in core inflation, effectively ruling out a BoC rate cut. Moreover, longer-term interest rates are market-driven and have been trending higher since March, when tariff sabre-rattling began in earnest. Canada’s five-year government bond yield broke above its key 3% support level in the past week. This could well trigger another rise in fixed mortgage rates. Furthermore, the Canadian two-year yield is 2.83%, which is above the Bank’s overnight policy rate of 2.75%. This suggests that monetary easing in Canada may be over for this cycle, provided the economy remains resilient. Of course, given the TACO issue (an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out), any forecast bears more than the usual uncertainty.

Written By: Zak Khan of REW Will your mortgage change if the BoC’s interest rate does? Every few months, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announces an interest rate hold, cut or raise, depending on the current and anticipated future economic conditions. But while these announcements get a lot of buzz, what exactly is the impact, if any, on your mortgage as a homeowner? And if you’re thinking of buying a home, will they affect the amount you end up paying at the end of the month? To understand what the Bank of Canada interest rate actually is, we have to define some terms. The interest rate being referred to when the BoC makes an announcement is the benchmark overnight rate. This value determines how much it costs Canada’s banks to borrow money from each other at the close of each business day. Banks are always sending money back and forth between each other. Whether that is for Interac e-transfers, payments to businesses, to settle accounts and much more. To balance their books at the end of the day, banks have two options: they can borrow money from each other or from the Bank of Canada itself. The first option is subject to the overnight rate, and the second is subject to the much-less talked about deposit rate. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll discuss the overnight rate in this article, as it gets the most coverage and has the most potential impact on the housing market.  

How does the overnight rate impact mortgage rates?

The overnight rate does impact mortgage rates, but it’s a little more complicated than it seems. Depending on whether you have a fixed or variable rate mortgage, the BoC’s interest rate announcement will affect your mortgage in different ways.  

Variable rate mortgages.

Lenders set their variable rate mortgages’ interest rate based on the BoC’s overnight rate. That means if there’s a rate cut, your mortgage’s interest rate goes down and if there’s an increase your mortgage’s interest rate goes up. Depending on the payment plan you have in place, this could either mean your payments go up if the BoC increases rates, or a greater portion of your payment goes toward interest, rather than principal. If there’s a cut, your payments could go down or you might pay more toward the principal. Ask your mortgage broker or lender to be sure.  

Fixed rate mortgages.

The impact of the BoC’s interest rate announcements is less direct on fixed rate mortgages than variable rate mortgages. After all, as the name suggests, your interest rate is fixed at a certain value and won’t change until it is time to renew your mortgage. But for new borrowers, or if it is time to renew and you’re considering another fixed rate mortgage, the BoC’s interest rate announcements will affect fixed mortgage rates in a more roundabout way. That’s because fixed rate mortgages are tied to the bond market. The bond market is where bonds, or promises by an issuer to pay money to the holder of the bond, are traded. In this case, it’s the government issuing the bond. Lenders use five-year bond prices to set their fixed rate mortgage rates. If the BoC cuts rates, it means inflation is going down which increases the value of the bonds investors are holding, and that also means more people buy bonds. All of this leads to the decrease in bond yields, which helps push down fixed rates. If the BoC raises rates, the opposite happens. As a result, fixed rate mortgages go up. Overall, fixed rate mortgages’ interest levels tend to lag a bit behind whatever the market is doing. For those looking to buy a home with a fixed rate mortgage or renew a fixed rate mortgage, the most immediate BoC announcement won’t have much effect on them, but the overall economic story could affect them a few years down the line.  

What should I do in response to a BoC rate announcement?

It may be tempting to react immediately to whatever the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is, but resist the urge to act without thinking. “I always tell customers to be aware of the rate, but more importantly pay attention to the actual dollar amount they’ll pay. Yeah these rate fluctuations, they’re always going to be there. Instead, look at the amount you have to pay at the end of the month,” says Terry Batth, a Mortgage Broker at Bayfield Mortgage. “A lot of buyers are like, ‘I want the best rate; I want the best rate,’ but the ‘best rate’ is not always the best outcome for them. There’s so much noise out there, but everyone’s financial situation is different from each other.” Therefore, get in touch with a mortgage broker who can help explain what has happened and if it means anything for you. If you currently hold a variable rate mortgage, as mentioned, you will see an impact on your interest payments. Let your mortgage broker know you hold a variable rate mortgage so they can help guide you through the next steps. For fixed rate mortgage holders, you have less to worry about in the immediate future, unless you are coming up on a renewal or are considering a switch to a variable rate mortgage. If you are considering buying a home after a BoC rate announcement, remember that it will matter most to you if you go for a variable rate mortgage – but you will still have to qualify in the first place. BoC rate announcements don’t directly change the qualification criteria lenders use. You still have to show sufficient income, savings, employment records and other supporting documentation.

Written by: Buffini & Co Overwhelmed by too much stuff? You're not alone - most Canadians feel the same.

• 75% feel more stressed with a cluttered home.
• A third of us feel overwhelmed by the need to clean.
• 16 minutes per day looking for lost stuff.

Clear Space, Clear Mind

Reduce stress and chaos with these tips to bring more calm into your life.

• Commit to weekly decluttering, even if it's just a single drawer or closet.
• Start by tossing easy, obvious items (e.g., mystery cords, old takeout menus, expired products, orphan storage lids).
• Take photos of sentimental items you don't have room for, then sell, donate or toss.
• Call a local nonprofit (such as The Salvation Army or Furniture Bank) to come pick up items for donation.
• Be honest with yourself. Does an item still fit into your lifestyle? Or do you feel "obligated" to keep it?

Don't Forget to Do a Digital Detox Put on a favourite show or music and then...

• Clean out your inbox: set a timer for 15 minutes.
• Unsubscribe from newsletters, promotions, etc.
• Delete apps you don't use.