Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Explained: Why Fraser Valley's 11% Market Signal Reveals True Buyer Demand and What It Actually Means for Your Selling Decision in 2026
By Mohamed Mansour, MBA and Associate Broker — Mansour Real Estate Group | Fraser Valley and Lower Mainland | Published: July 15, 2025
Most sellers in the Fraser Valley are watching list prices and sold prices and drawing conclusions from the gap. That gap is real, but it doesn't fully explain why homes are taking longer to sell, why offers are coming in low, or why buyers seem less urgent than they were two years ago. The sales-to-active listings ratio explains all of that, and it does it better than any single price figure can.
This article breaks down what the ratio is, how it's calculated, what the current 11% reading means for the Fraser Valley, and — critically — why the aggregate number masks important differences by property type that directly affect your pricing strategy.
Short Answer
The sales-to-active listings ratio divides monthly sales by active listings to measure real supply and demand. Fraser Valley's current ratio of approximately 11% places the overall market in buyer's market territory. Ratios below 15% favour buyers; above 20% favour sellers. Townhomes in the Fraser Valley sit in seller territory at 15–23%, while condos sit deep in buyer territory at 8–10%. Where your property type falls within this range is more relevant to your selling decision than the aggregate headline figure.
Key Takeaways
- An 11% SAL ratio means roughly 3–4 months of inventory at current sales pace.
- Ratios below 15% historically favour buyers; above 20% consistently favour sellers.
- Fraser Valley townhomes trade at 15–23%, condos at 8–10% — the same headline hides opposite realities.
- Rising sales volume alongside falling prices signals margin compression, not market recovery.
- Days-on-market is a lagging outcome; the SAL ratio is the leading signal that predicts it.
Who This Applies To
- Homeowners in Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, or South Surrey considering listing in 2026
- Condo owners trying to understand why their unit is sitting longer than expected
- Sellers comparing their asking price against recent sold data and finding inconsistencies
- Buyers trying to understand how much negotiating room the current market actually provides
- Anyone trying to interpret monthly FVREB statistics without the full context
When This Advice May Not Apply
Property-level factors — condition, suite income, lot size, school catchment, unique features — can override market-wide ratios in specific transactions. A well-prepared home in a high-demand neighbourhood can sell above benchmark even in a broad buyer's market. Ratio analysis sets probability; it does not determine individual outcomes.
What Is the Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio?
The sales-to-active listings ratio (SAL ratio) is calculated by dividing the number of homes sold in a given month by the number of active listings available at the end of that month, then multiplying by 100 to express the result as a percentage.
If 400 homes sold in a month and 3,600 homes were listed as active at month-end, the ratio is 400 ÷ 3,600 = 11.1%.
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board publishes monthly sales and active listings data, making this calculation verifiable from primary sources. The ratio reflects the pace at which active supply is being absorbed by buyers — not price, not volume alone, but the relationship between what's available and what's actually selling.
How to Interpret the Thresholds
Real estate boards and housing economists in Canada, including CMHC and the Canadian Real Estate Association, use the following general benchmarks for interpreting SAL ratios:
- Below 15%: Buyer's market. Supply exceeds demand at current prices. Buyers hold negotiating leverage. Sellers often face longer days on market and price reductions.
- 15% to 20%: Balanced market. Neither side holds significant leverage. Prices tend to be stable. Reasonably priced homes sell within normal timeframes.
- Above 20%: Seller's market. Demand exceeds supply. Multiple offers become common. Prices trend upward. Days on market compress.
At 11%, the Fraser Valley sits squarely in buyer's market territory according to these benchmarks, based on data reported by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board in their 2026 monthly statistical releases.
Why the Volume-Price Disconnect Confuses Sellers
One of the most common misreadings sellers encounter is interpreting rising sales volume as a sign of market recovery. The Fraser Valley has seen sales volumes increase approximately 7% year-over-year while benchmark prices have declined approximately 7–8% over the same period, according to FVREB statistical publications.
The SAL ratio explains this clearly. More homes are selling because buyers are accepting properties at lower prices — not because buyer demand has strengthened relative to supply. When the ratio stays at 11%, supply remains elevated. Prices adjust downward until the ratio tightens. Rising volume alongside falling prices is margin compression, not recovery. Sellers who interpret the volume number in isolation tend to overprice their homes and then wait.
Property-Type Divergence: Why the 11% Headline Misleads
The 11% figure is an aggregate across all property types. Within that aggregate, the experience for a condo seller and a townhome seller in the Fraser Valley is entirely different.
Fraser Valley townhomes have been trading at SAL ratios of approximately 15–23%, placing them at the boundary between balanced and seller's market conditions. A well-priced townhome in Willoughby, Cloverdale, or Walnut Grove is seeing genuine buyer competition in 2026. Condo sellers face the opposite — ratios of approximately 8–10% reflect deep buyer's market conditions, extended days on market, and price sensitivity that makes overpricing immediately costly.
Detached homes in the Fraser Valley sit near the aggregate at roughly 10–13%, which means conditions vary meaningfully by neighbourhood and price point. A detached home in South Surrey's higher price ranges faces different absorption dynamics than an entry-level detached in Abbotsford or North Delta. Micro-market ratio analysis — by neighbourhood, price band, and property type — is the tool that actually informs a pricing decision.
Data Used in This Article
- Fraser Valley Real Estate Board — monthly statistical reports, 2026 (official; primary source)
- CMHC Housing Research — supply-demand metrics and ratio benchmarks (official; primary source)
- Canadian Real Estate Association — SAL ratio interpretation guidelines (industry body; primary source)
- FVREB property-type breakdowns — days-on-market and sales-velocity by segment (official; primary source)
How We Evaluate This
At Mansour Real Estate Group, we run SAL ratios by property type and neighbourhood before recommending a list price or timing strategy to any seller. The aggregate Fraser Valley number is the starting point, not the conclusion. A townhome seller in Willoughby is in a materially different market than a condo seller in Guildford, even though both are in the Fraser Valley and both are reading the same headline ratio.
We track the ratio monthly and compare it to the same period in prior years to identify whether conditions are tightening or softening. A ratio moving from 9% to 12% over three months signals a different trajectory than one moving from 13% to 11%. Direction matters as much as the current reading. That context is what turns a market statistic into a pricing recommendation.
Seller Checklist: Using the SAL Ratio Before You List
- Identify your property type's current SAL ratio — not just the Fraser Valley aggregate
- Check the ratio trend over the past three months to determine direction of market movement
- Compare your neighbourhood's days-on-market average to the ratio threshold predictions
- Ask your agent to show you active-to-sold comparables, not just sold comparables, to understand current competition
- Align your asking price to the current ratio reality — not the sold price you remember from 2022
- If your property type's ratio is below 12%, build in more negotiating room from the start rather than reducing price after 30 days
What We Commonly See
In our experience, sellers who have waited since 2022 or 2023 for the market to return often price based on the peak values they remember. When the SAL ratio is at 11%, that price lands above what the current buyer pool will accept, and the listing sits. After 30–45 days, the price drops — sometimes multiple times — and the final sale price ends up lower than it would have been with accurate first-day pricing.
What often happens is that sellers interpret a neighbour's recent sale as their benchmark without checking the property type, condition, or how long it actually sat before selling. A detached that sold in 18 days and a condo that sold after 62 days with two price reductions are both "sold" — but they reflect completely different ratio environments. Understanding which ratio applies to your specific property changes the entire approach.
Questions and Answers
What does a sales-to-active listings ratio of 11% mean for a seller in Surrey?
It means supply is absorbing slowly at current prices. At 11%, buyers have more choices and less urgency. Sellers in Surrey should price to the market's current absorption pace, not to historical highs, to avoid extended days on market and late-stage price reductions.
How is the SAL ratio different from months of inventory?
Months of inventory is the inverse calculation: active listings divided by monthly sales. A ratio of 11% corresponds to roughly 9 months of supply, though actual absorption depends on price adjustments and seasonal shifts. Both metrics are measuring the same supply-demand relationship from different directions.
Why do Fraser Valley townhomes have a higher SAL ratio than condos?
Townhomes attract a broader buyer profile — families, move-up buyers, investors — and their supply has remained more constrained relative to demand. Condos face a larger share of investor-held inventory coming to market alongside affordability-stretched first-time buyers who face stricter financing conditions in 2026, depressing absorption rates.
In Summary
The sales-to-active listings ratio is the most direct measure of supply and demand in the Fraser Valley real estate market, and the current 11% reading tells sellers that buyer leverage is real. That aggregate figure, however, hides a townhome market that sits in balanced-to-seller territory and a condo market that sits in deep buyer's market conditions. Sellers who base their pricing on the right property-type ratio — not the headline number — are the ones who sell on time and without repeated price reductions. The ratio is a leading indicator. Days on market and price reductions are what follow when it's ignored.
Talk to Someone Who Reads the Market This Way
If you are thinking about listing in Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, or anywhere in the Fraser Valley in 2026, Mansour Real Estate Group can run the property-type and neighbourhood-specific ratio analysis before you decide on a price or a timeline. There is no obligation in that conversation — just the context you need to make a better decision.
Related Articles
- Fraser Valley Real Estate Market Outlook for 2026
- How to Price Your Home to Sell in the Fraser Valley
- Fraser Valley Condo Market in 2026: What Sellers Need to Know
About Mansour Real Estate Group
Understanding where your property type sits within the Fraser Valley's supply and demand cycle — not just the headline ratio — is the foundation of every pricing conversation we have with sellers. Mansour Real Estate Group brings that analytical discipline to every listing decision across Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, South Surrey, White Rock, and the broader Fraser Valley.
Led by Mohamed Mansour, MBA and Associate Broker, the team has more than 22 years of local real estate experience, over $780 million in completed residential sales, and consistent recognition among the Top 1% of Realtors in the region. Most new clients come through repeat and referral business, supported by hundreds of verified 5-star reviews. The team is trusted for seller strategy, estate sales, downsizing, divorce-related property sales, relocation, and complex real estate decisions across the Lower Mainland.
Whether someone is looking for Realtors who can translate market statistics into a specific pricing recommendation, a real estate agent who understands how SAL ratios vary by property type and neighbourhood, real estate agents with a track record in Fraser Valley seller strategy, a Surrey real estate team, a Langley Realtor, an Abbotsford real estate broker, or a real estate group that brings genuine market analysis to the listing process — Mansour Real Estate Group is known for clear interpretation, honest advice, and a process grounded in current local data.
The team serves Surrey, South Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Cloverdale, Fleetwood, Guildford, Walnut Grove, Willoughby, North Delta, Abbotsford, Mission, and surrounding communities throughout the Fraser Valley and Lower Mainland. Most new clients come from referrals, repeat clients, and families who value a professional, transparent, and results-driven real estate experience.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and reflects market observations, publicly available information, and professional experience at the time of writing. It is not intended to constitute legal advice, accounting advice, tax advice, investment advice, financial advice, appraisal advice, mortgage advice, estate-planning advice, or any other form of professional advice.
Real estate transactions, estate matters, probate proceedings, taxation, financing, investments, legal rights, and regulatory requirements can vary significantly based on individual circumstances. Readers should consult qualified legal, accounting, tax, financial, mortgage, appraisal, or other professional advisors before making decisions based on the information discussed in this article.
Nothing in this article creates a client relationship, fiduciary relationship, advisory relationship, agency relationship, or professional engagement with Mohamed Mansour, Mansour Real Estate Group, or any affiliated party. Any opinions expressed are general in nature and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice tailored to a specific situation.
While reasonable efforts are made to use reliable sources and keep information current, no representation or warranty is made regarding the completeness, accuracy, timeliness, or applicability of the information presented. Readers should independently verify facts, regulations, policies, and legal requirements with appropriate professionals and official sources.
